fridgeboy I think the modern XCOM games have specifically been called out for this…
In other discussions on the subject I have heard Into the Breach and Mario and Rabbids brought up as more satisfying ways of handling probability in strategy games. In the former you ALWAYS know the outcome of your next action. This changes the game design on a fundamental level, however, and makes it more akin to a puzzle game imo. The latter only has 0%, 50%, and 100% probability increments from what I recall. A 50-50 chance to hit something seems more intuitive and (regardless of what calculations are going on in the background) will probably be less frustrating when it misses.
edit: sorry, just realized @esper already mentioned Rabbids in the very first post! I still plan on playing it myself–sounds like they really nailed making an accessible tactics/strategy game.